TCW Core Fixed Income Fund

Quarterly Commentary


Market Review – “What is it that you would like me to do, sir?”

Having foreshadowed a willingness to renew monetary accommodation as early as January of this year, perhaps the Fed could be lauded for holding off action until the third quarter against the withering criticism from the President and intermittently volatile markets. But capitulate it finally did, not once but twice, with an ease of 25 basis points in September to follow one in late July, which had marked its first cut since 2008. What was notable in the redirection of policy, as highlighted by the latest meeting minutes, was a lack of consensus versus the past, underscoring uncertainty (and dispersion of opinion) among the FOMC members. The broader viewpoints suggest increased risk of policy error, particularly in the face of unrelenting political pressure. However, it wasn’t as if the more dovish faction was without support for its perspective: since the start of the year, trade tension and its fallout disaffected economic measurables in a meaningful way. As a result, global recessionary concerns mounted in the third quarter, particularly in Europe where the IHS Markit Eurozone Composite PMI, which captures both manufacturing and services activity, fell to 50.4 in September, the lowest reading since June 2013, and German manufacturing PMI fell to a 10-year low. Trade concerns have taken a toll on U.S. manufacturing as well, with the PMI here falling into contraction territory for the first time in three years. Not surprisingly, businesses remain skeptical of the prospective environment, as evidenced by sharp declines in survey-based measures of expectations, confidence, and spending decisions...

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Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index – A market capitalization-weighted index of investment-grade, fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed and mortgage-backed securities, with maturities of at least one year.

About Securities

Securities issued by U.S. government agencies and authorities are not insured, and may not be guaranteed by the U.S. Government. Fixed income investments entail interest rate risk, the risk of issuer default, issuer credit risk, and price volatility risk. Funds investing in bonds can lose their value as interest rates rise and an investor can lose principal.

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It should not be assumed that an investment in the securities listed was or will be profitable. Portfolio characteristics and holdings are subject to change at any time.

This content may include estimates, projections and other "forward-looking" statements. Actual events may differ substantially from those presented. TCW/MetWest assumes no duty to update any such statements. All projections are based on current asset prices and are subject to change.

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Any opinions expressed are current only as of the time made and are subject to change without notice. TCW assumes no duty to update any such statements. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not represent the views of TCW as a firm or of any other portfolio manager or employee of TCW.

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