Encouraging signs continued to appear across the macroeconomic spectrum in the second quarter, as GDP growth picked up slightly and strength persisted in corporate earnings and housing market metrics. Further, long dormant pricing pressures surfaced, as the Core PCE Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, hit the long-sought 2% year-over-year target in May. Add this to an early June unemployment rate that fell to 3.8% (matching lows last seen in 2000 and 1969 previously) and a reasonable conclusion might be that economy is humming and quite possibly poised to gain speed in the wake of fiscal stimulus earlier this year. These backward-looking statistics do, indeed, tell a very good story, but not necessarily one likely to carry on much, much longer...
To read full commentary please click pdf below.
Legal Disclosures